Disappointment Models: an axiomatic approach

URL des Documents de travail : http://ces.univ-paris1.fr/cesdp/cesdp2011.htmlDocuments de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2010.102 - ISSN : 1955-611X - Version originale Décembre 2010, révisée en Mai et Décembre 2011In this paper, a fully choice-based theory of disappointment is developed. It encompasses, as particular cases, EU theory, Gul's theory of disappointment (1991) and the models of Loomes and Sugden (1986). According to the new theory, the risk premium of a random prospect is the sum of two premiums: a concavity premium that is nothing but the usual Arrow-Pratt premium and a second premium that may be identified to expected disappointment. The corresponding representing functional belongs to the class of lottery-dependent utility models (Becker and Sarin 1987) since disappointment is the deficit between the utility of the realized outcome and its expected value. However, unlike the lottery-dependent approach, the theory is choice-based and its axioms are experimentally testable.Nous proposons, dans cette étude, une axiomatisation du comportement d'un individu en univers incertain. Cette axiomatisation permet d'effectuer une synthèse de nombreuses théories antérieures : théorie de l'utilité espérée, théorie de la déception (Gul 1991), modèles à la Loomes et Sugden (1986) ou modèles à fonctionnelle "loterie-dépendante" (Becker and Sarin 1987). La prime de risque exigée par un investisseur y est la somme d'une prime d'Arrow-Pratt et d'une seconde prime, égale à l'espérance de la déception. Celle-ci n'est autre que la différence entre la satisfaction éprouvée ex ante et l'utilité espérée du revenu aléatoire

Disappointment Models : an axiomatic approach

In this paper, a fully choice-based theory of disappointment is developed. It encompasses, as particular cases, EU theory, Gul's theory of disappointment (1991) and the models of Loomes and Sugden (1986). According to the new theory, the risk premium of a random prospect is the sum of two premiums : a concavity premium that is nothing but the usual Arrow-Pratt premium and a second premium that may be identified to expected disappointment. The corresponding representing functional belongs to the class of lottery-dependent utility models (Becker and Sarin 1987) since disappointment is the deficit between the utility of the realized outcome and its expected value. However, unlike the lottery-dependent approach, the theory is choice-based and its axioms are experimentally testable.Axiomatization ; disappointment aversion ; random prospect ; risk premium ; expected utility.

Effects of margin-parallel shortening and density contrasts on back-arc extension during subduction: Experimental insights and possible application to Anatolia

International audienceSo as to investigate the parameters influencing subduction and back-arc extension, we have done three series of laboratory experiments (32 in all) on physical models. Each model consisted of adjacent oceanic and continental plates, floating on an asthenosphere. In experiments of Series A, a wide rigid piston, moving horizontally, controlled the rate of convergence of the oceanic and continental plates, whereas, in Series B or C, a wide or narrow piston produced lateral compression, parallel to the continent-ocean boundary (COB) and perpendicular to the subduction direction. The parameters that we tested were (1) the velocity of plate convergence (Series A), (2) the width of the compressing piston (Series B and C), and (3) the density ratio between oceanic and continental plates (Series B and C). This density ratio was a key factor. For a ratio of 1.4, the amount of extension in the continental plate increased regularly throughout time; for a ratio of 1.3, the extension remained small, until the piston stopped moving laterally; and for a ratio of 1.1, there was little or no extension. The width of the compressing piston had a smaller effect, although a narrow piston provided more space, into which the continental plate could extend. One possible application of our models is to Anatolia. Despite similar geological settings, the areas north of the Hellenic and Cyprus subduction zones differ, in that extension is large in the former and much smaller in the latter. We suggest that one of the main driving forces for Aegean extension may have been a high density ratio between subducting oceanic lithosphere and a Hellenic-Balkanic upper plate

Modelización analógica de la deformación en las zonas de compresión y subducción

Cette thèse présente les résultats et conclusions issues d une série de modèles analogiques de systèmes de compressif à différentes échelles : Les expériences réalisées à l échelle crustale montrent que la symétrie de structures compressives, de type plis et chevauchements avec 3 niveaux de décollement, est fortement dépendante de la vitesse de sédimentation. Les résultats ont été appliqués au Subandin Bolivien. Les expériences réalisées à l échelle lithosphérique simulent la subduction et l extension arrière-arc dans un système subissant une compression parallèle à la marge continent-océan (COB). Ces modèles démontrent que la différence de densité entre les plaques continentales et océaniques est le paramètre clé pour expliquer l'extension arrière-arc: plus petite est la différence de densité, plus faible est l'extension produite. Les résultats ont été appliqués al Anatolie. En n, ces modèles ont été utilisés pour tester la reproductibilité et les limites de la modélisation analogique.This thesis presents the results and conclusions from a series of analogue modelling of deformation in compressive and subduction zones (crustal scale and lithospheric scale) : The experiments carried out at the crustal scale show that the symmetry of compressive structures, folds and trust belts with 3 levels of décollement is strongly dependent on the rate of sedimentation. The results were applied to the Subandin Bolivian. The experiments carried out at the lithospheric scale simulate subduction and back-arc extension in a system under compression parallel to the continent - ocean margin (COB). These models show that the density ratio between the continental and oceanic plates is the key factor to explain the back-arc extension: as smaller the difference in density is, less extension occurred. The results were applied to Anatolia. Finally, these models were used to test the reproducibility and limits for analog modeling.RENNES1-Bibl. électronique (352382106) / SudocSudocFranceF

The volcaniclastic series from the luang prabang basin, Laos: A witness of a triassic magmatic arc?

International audienceThe paleogeographic evolution of South East Asia (SEA) during the early Mesozoic is still poorly understood and a number of models have recently been put forward to account for the geodynamic evolution of SEA. The Luang Prabang Basin (north Laos), located in the core of a “paleogeographic jigsaw” in SEA, recorded a long lasting volcanism that spanned for ∼ 35 my from the earliest Triassic up to Late Triassic as evidenced by combined stratigraphic and geochronological (U-Pb/zircon) analyses performed on both volcanic and volcaniclastic series. The volcanic rocks are arc tholeiites and calk-alkaline andesites to dacites. The volcaniclastic rocks contain, in part, volcaniclasts produced contemporaneously with sedimentation. Both the volcanic and volcaniclastic series display geochemical features characteristic of a subduction related volcanism. Therefore, the Luang Prabang Basin documents a magmatic arc in a good agreement with the recent recognition of neighboring ophiolitic rocks in the Luang Prabang area. Following a passive margin setting that prevailed from the late Carboniferous to the late Permian, an active margin then initiated along the western margin of the Indochina Block. This active magmatic arc developed as the result of an east-dipping subduction below the Indochina Block during most of the Triassic, at least from ca. 250 to 215 Ma. Subsequently, this oceanic subduction episode must have been followed by a continental collision of the Indochina Block with the eastern Simao Block, at a period that remains to be defined

New sedimentological, structural and paleo-thermicity data in the Boucheville Basin (eastern North Pyrenean Zone, France)

International audienceThe Boucheville Basin is one of the easternmost Mesozoic basins of the North Pyrenean Zone (NPZ) that was opened during the Albian extension between the Iberian and European plates. During the extension, a HT/LP metamorphism event affected the Albian basins near the North Pyrenean Fault (NPF). Our aim is to better understand the evolution of the Boucheville Basin during the Albian–Cenomanian lithospheric thinning, which occurred under high thermal conditions. Sedimentological and structural data were collected in the basin and are used to produce synthetic stratigraphic columns of different portions of the basin and to restore selected cross-sections. North–south cross-sections show that the Boucheville Basin is a large and asymmetrical deformed syncline with inverted borders. Synthetic stratigraphic columns show that the sedimentation of the Boucheville Basin starts with carbonate platforms deposited under low bathymetric conditions showing slope deposits and evolves to deep bathymetric conditions of marls deposited without evidence of slopes. Raman spectroscopy on carbonaceous material (RSCM) was made on samples used to construct the sedimentological stratigraphic columns in order to obtain a temperature map of the Albian metamorphism. They reveal homogeneity in the temperatures between 500 and 600 °C. In situ LA–ICP–MS U–Pb dating of titanite grains found in a syn-deformation located in the Albian calcschists provided an age of ca. 97 Ma that gives a time constraint for both the deformation and metamorphism. These data are used collectively to propose a model for the tectono-sedimentary and metamorphic evolution of the Boucheville Basin during the Albian extension

Basement – Cover decoupling and progressive exhumation of metamorphic sediments at hot rifted margin. Insights from the Northeastern Pyrenean analog

International audienceWe compile field data collected along the eastern part of the North Pyrenean Zone (NPZ) to point to a tectonic evolution under peculiar thermal conditions applying to the basin sediments in relation with the opening of the Cretaceous Pyrenean rift. Based on this compilation, we show that when thinning of the continental crust increased , isotherms moved closer to the surface with the result that the brittle-ductile transition propagated upward and reached sediments deposited at the early stage of the basin opening. During the continental breakup, the pre-rift Mesozoic cover was efficiently decoupled from the Paleozoic basement along the Triassic evaporite level and underwent drastic ductile thinning and boudinage. We suggest that the upper Albian and upper Creta-ceous flysches acted as a blanket allowing temperature increase in the mobile pre-rift cover. Finally, we show that continuous spreading of the basin floor triggered the exhumation of the metamorphic, ductily sheared pre-rift cover, thus contributing to the progressive thinning of the sedimentary pile. In a second step, we investigate the detailed geological records of such a hot regime evolution along a reference-section of the eastern NPZ. We propose a balanced restoration from the Mouthoumet basement massif (north) to the Boucheville Albian basin (south). This section shows a north to south increase in the HT Pyrenean imprint from almost no metamorphic recrystallization to more than 600 °C in the pre-and syn-rift sediments. From this reconstruction, we propose a scenario of tectonic thinning involving the exhumation of the pre-rift cover by the activation of various detachment surfaces at different levels in the sedimentary pile. In a third step, examination of the architecture of current distal passive margin domains provides confident comparison between the Pyrenean case and modern analogs. Finally, we propose a general evolutionary model for the pre-rift sequence of the Northeastern Pyrenean rifted margin

The impact of syn- and post-extension prograding sedimentation on the development of salt-related rift basins and their inversion: Clues from analogue modelling

Various studies have demonstrated the intrinsic interrelationship between tectonics and sedimentation in salt-related rift basins during extension as well as during their inversion by compression. Here, we present seven brittle-ductile analogue models to show that the longitudinal or transverse progradation of sediment filling an elongate extensional basin has a substantial impact on the growth of diapirs and their lateral geometrical variations. We use five extensional models to reveal how these prograding systems triggered diapir growth variations, from proximal to distal areas, relative to the sedimentary source. In the models, continuous passive diapir walls developed, after a short period of reactive-active diapiric activity, during syn-extensional homogeneous deposition. In contrast, non-rectilinear diapir walls grew during longitudinal prograding sedimentation. Both longitudinal and transverse post extensional progradation triggered well-developed passive diapirs in the proximal domains, whereas incipient reactive-active diapirs, incipient roller-like diapirs, or poorly developed diapirs were generated in the distal domains, depending on the modelled sedimentary pattern. Two models included final phases of 6% and 10% shortening associated with basin inversion by compression, respectively, to discriminate compressional from purely extensional geometries. With the applied shortening, the outward flanks of existing diapir walls steepened their dips from 8 degrees-17 degrees to 30 degrees-50 degrees. Likewise, 6% of shortening narrowed the diapir walls by 32%-72%, with their fully closing (salt welds) with 10% of shortening. We compare our results with the distribution of salt walls and minibasins of the Central High Atlas diapiric basin in Morocco, which was infilled with a longitudinally prograding mixed siliciclastic and carbonatic depositional sequence during the Early-Middle Jurassic with a minimum thicknesses of 2.5-4.0 km. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved